If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, February 2nd, legend says we’re in for six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t, then spring is just around the corner. Here on the West Coast, we traditionally do not make too much fuss over the second day of the second month of our year, but on the East Coast they sure do.
Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania has an annual three-day festival where people from all over the world gather at Gobbler’s Knob to watch Phil in action and learn firsthand was lies in store for them, weather-wise. Or so the story goes. You can check out www.groundhog.org for more information.
Does this century-old European tradition have any significance in the reality of our weather in 2008? According to Keith Heidorn, PhD, author of the 2008 "Weather Doctor’s Weather Almanac," there is some truth to the fun traditions of the groundhog seeing his shadow. "A sunny winter day at these latitudes indicates a weather situation likely dominated by a cold high pressure system. Such conditions may last for another day or two or three. A winter day with grey skies and weak sun giving no shadow usually indicates that a frontal system dominates the weather, generally the influx of warmer, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico." The Weather Doctor states that the groundhog method of weather forecasting will produce valid results only a little more than half the time. In fact, meteorologists have figured that, historically speaking, the groundhog has only been right 28% of the time.
Consistent records for the groundhog’s "findings" have been kept since 1900. From then until now, only 14 times has the groundhog not seen his shadow. One of those times being in 1943 when he decided to take the year off and never reported for duty!